SACRAMENTO, CA — A new statewide poll conducted by Stack Data Strategy shows gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton leading the race for California governor, confirming his status as the top contender to replace Governor Gavin Newsom.

A survey of 2,012 registered voters, conducted from July 3 to 10, finds Hilton ahead in the overall race for governor and dominating the Republican field, leading declared GOP challenger Chad Bianco by more than a 3-to-1 margin among likely primary voters. Hilton captures 19% of the vote in the initial ballot and 27% in a forced-choice scenario where undecided voters are asked to choose between candidates from their preferred party.

“This poll confirms what we’re hearing everywhere across the state: Californians want new leadership, and Steve Hilton is the Republican who can win,” said Hilton campaign manager Matt Ciepielowski.

Even in a hypothetical scenario where Vice President Kamala Harris enters the race, Hilton remains highly competitive, holding 22%–27% of the vote, well ahead of Bianco (6–8%) and Democrat Katie Porter (8–9%). 

Harris consolidates most of the Democratic vote, but does not fundamentally change Hilton’s strong standing with Republicans and independents looking for change.

Stack Data Strategy, the firm that conducted the poll, provided national modelling support to NRCC in 2022 and target seat modelling for the NRSC in 2024. Their most recent MRP model of the US electorate was recently covered in Politico’s DC Playbook.

Addressing the Data

When prompted, undecided voters lean heavily toward Hilton, expanding his lead and reinforcing his momentum.

The poll was conducted using best-practice methodologies and was weighted by age, gender, education, ethnicity, party registration, and 2024 presidential vote to ensure it reflects the composition of California’s electorate.

Key Findings:

• Hilton leads the GOP field: 19% initial vote; 27% with leaners included.
• Bianco lags behind: 6–10% depending on the scenario.
• Hilton beats Democrats (except Harris): Stronger than Porter and Villaraigosa in multiple matchups.
• Kamala Harris’s entry reshapes the field, but Hilton remains in top-tier contention.

“I’m grateful for the strong support we’re seeing across California,” Hilton said. “This isn’t just about winning an election. It’s about ending 15 years of one-party failure and restoring the promise of this state.”

For more information on the poll, please visit HERE.

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For more information about Steve Hilton’s campaign and vision for California, visit www.stevehiltonforgovernor.com.